Will generative AI be for software what the printing press was for writing?

The prospect is exciting, and there’s a ton of hype and capital riding on the assumption that it is - or that it will be. If it pans out, the implications are potentially world-changing, in the same way that the printing press gave us revolutions in religion, politics, and science.

But what would a printing press for software actually look like?

It would be something that dramatically reduces the cost of software; from what I can tell, we’re talking about several orders-of-magnitude cost reductions. The cost of a book went from multiple-weeks-of-wages to less-than-a-day’s-wage over 200 years, according to a 2019 study. Relatedly, a software printing press will enable software production in scenarios which never made sense before.

I spend a lot of time thinking about AI code generation in the enterprise, but that’s not where we’re going to see these kinds of transformative changes.

Instead, we are likely to see the printing press effect emerge in bespoke software, written for a small group of people. Such software tackles personal finance management, productivity setups, vacation planning - and who knows what else. It stretches into small business settings, for inventory management, sales pipeline tracking, and a hundred different use cases that are either too quirky or too low-budget for big-business software. And let’s not forget the constellation of small community groups that need membership directories and calendars, but find the SaaS offerings too constraining. There’s a vast sea of software waiting to be written for these use cases.

But who will serve this market? Does this market actually want to be served?

Today there are offerings targeting small-scale bespoke software, such as Lovable and n8n, and they are preceded by a bunch of low-code/no-code platforms. Are they capable of dramatically lowering the cost of software engineering for these bespoke, small-scale use cases? There is reason to be hopeful: we are talking about relatively simple, greenfield software development, and in some cases short-lived software that doesn’t need to be maintained for years. These are exactly the scenarios where generative AI shines.

But even if the technology is up to the task, there are still questions about demand. Do individuals and small groups actually want bespoke software? In many cases, bespoke software could provide significant value. But will potential customers think to seek it out? If they do, will they be willing to wrangle the development process - such as it is? Will these customers be willing to pay for bespoke software, and if not - how will the underlying tools stay afloat?

It’s unclear whether this trend will take off. Supposing it does, what comes next? I don’t think anyone who witnessed the invention of the printing press imagined that it would lead to a religious reformation 75 years later. What’s going to happen if software becomes personal?

Also find this post on LinkedIn!